The Indian rupee witnessed a weak opening in trade today at 95.81 to the dollar. Analysts maintain a cautious near-term outlook and warn that a sustained move above 96 against the US dollar could trigger further depreciation, though the currency has a higher probability of consolidating around 95.20–95.30 in the near-term, they believe.
Currency expert K N Dey told ANI volatility is expected to continue going forward on account of the continuing Middle East conflict and the hanging sword of US tariffs on India. “We cannot avoid Russian oil nor at the same time afford the pressure of US Tariffs,” he said. As per Dey, RBI’s intervention in the currency market will continue to avoid any undue speculative volatility. “There is a high chance of the rupee correcting towards 95.20/30 levels shortly,” he noted.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money told ANI, “the rupee has found some relief as crude prices have eased, trading below the Rs 95.80 level against the dollar in early trade” The currency nevertheless remains sensitive to oil prices, global yields and foreign portfolio flows, as per Ponmudi. At the same time, USD/INR is testing the 95.70–95.80 support zone, trading marginally lower on the day by 0.12%. “Immediate resistance is placed at 96.00–96.10, with a sustained break above this zone opening the way toward the next resistance at 96.40–96.50. On the downside, a decisive break below 95.70 could extend the pair’s weakness toward the next support at 95.40–95.50,” Ponmudi noted. As per Ponmudi, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 61, remaining elevated but easing slightly from recent highs, indicating that bullish momentum is moderating. “A sustained move above 96.00 against the US dollar would signal renewed weakness in the currency. A break below 95.50, meanwhile, could provide further relief to the rupee,” he stated.
(With Inputs From ANI)
Rupee Volatility To Persist; Experts See 95.20-95.30 Amid Middle East, Tariff Risks
