Indian equity benchmarks ended their two-week rally on a weaker note, weighed down by escalating geopolitical tensions related to the US-Iran conflict and cautious commentary from major IT firms. Despite a positive start, persistent selling pressure dominated trading through the week, dragging both frontline indices lower. The Nifty 50 declined 1.87 per cent to close at 23,897.95, while the Sensex fell 2.33 per cent to settle at 76,664.21. The downturn reflects growing unease among investors as external risks and earnings uncertainty cloud near-term market direction.
Market participants are bracing for a volatile phase ahead, with sentiment expected to hinge on global developments. According to Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to news flow, particularly updates surrounding U.S.–Iran tensions, crude oil movements, and broader global cues, as per the Mint report.
He noted that easing oil prices could provide relief to macroeconomic concerns and improve investor sentiment. However, any escalation or disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger fresh volatility and profit booking. Currency trends and global market performance will also be key variables shaping momentum.
“Overall, while there is potential for recovery on positive triggers, the sustainability of any upmove will depend on geopolitical de-escalation, moderation in crude oil prices, and sustained buying interest. Until clearer directional cues emerge, markets are likely to remain range-bound with a cautious bias, warranting a disciplined and risk-managed approach,” he said.
Key Global And Domestic Triggers
One of the most closely watched events is the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for April 28–29. Investors widely expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for a third straight meeting, after pausing earlier this year following rate cuts in the previous quarter.
“The US Federal Reserve’s policy decision will be a key event, providing cues on interest rate trajectory and liquidity conditions,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking, in a note.
Meanwhile, the Q4 earnings season is gathering pace, with over 200 companies set to announce their results for the March quarter. Heavyweights such as Maruti Suzuki, Eternal (Zomato), Ultratech Cement, Vedanta, Adani Enterprises, and Hindustan Unilever are among those scheduled to report.
“The ongoing Q4 earnings season is expected to act as a key catalyst for stock-specific price action, with market participants closely tracking reported numbers, forward guidance, and sectoral outlooks to reassess earnings visibility and valuation comfort across segments. Performance of heavyweight stocks and key sectors will remain critical in influencing overall index direction,” Ponmudi added.
Geopolitics, Oil, And Fund Flows In Focus
Geopolitical developments continue to cast a shadow, particularly the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Diplomatic efforts have made limited headway, even after a ceasefire extension aimed at facilitating negotiations.
Crude oil prices remain another major concern. While prices fluctuated sharply during the week, they ended higher overall, reflecting a tug-of-war between supply worries and hopes of easing tensions.
Investor flows also signal caution. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned significant sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 8,828 crore on April 24, the largest outflow in weeks. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided some support by remaining net buyers.
So far in 2026, FIIs have sold equities worth Rs 2.25 lakh crore, whereas DIIs have invested Rs 2.79 lakh crore, helping cushion the market from sharper declines.
